Graciela Chichilnisky, on this morning's Start the Week (Radio 4) claimed that whilst US politicians in the Senate and House of Representatives are inclined to challenge manmade global warming as an unproven hypothesis, and accordingly the federal government is slow to prepare for impending crisis (albeit 30 years away), over in the Pentagon it has been identified as the single biggest threat to US national security.
She is the first person I have heard to spell out clearly what I have been saying on my blog at www.blog.wolffs.info for over a year: that when considering the probability of the hypothesis being correct (currently at least 85% I should think) it is also necessary to take into account the extreme consequences if it is indeed correct. Also, the costs and risks involved in acting to avoid the danger (costs and risks that are relatively low).
When you've spun the chamber of a revolver loaded with just one bullet, there is nothing particularly clever about saying you're fairly sure it's safe to point it at your head and pull the trigger. But a more accurate analogy would be to load five (83%) of the six chambers - and then fire the revolver at your grandchildren.
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